After extensive statistical analysis I have determined the best course of action re the Banjo-Kazooie situation (see previous post). Assuming that the original's a tenner and the new one's £40, and that you'll get the original no matter what, the expected profit from pre-ordering is £(10-40R), where R is the probability that Nuts & Bolts is rubbish. Based on this equation, you ought to take advantage of the deal if you are more than three-quarters certain that it'll be good.

This ignores the factor of being disappointed if you don't pre-order and then it does turn out to be good and you could've saved money. If you want to assign a utility value to that outcome and model the situation as a game theory problem, go ahead. Personally I'm an empty soulless drone who feels neither excitement nor disappointment, nor any emotion bar a perpetual all-consuming apathy, so I'll pass. Have fun though.

## Tuesday, 26 August 2008

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